According to the Federal Reserve Board, personal wealth levels have finally climbed back to their 2007 levels, minus the inflation adjustment. So, what exactly does it mean that we’re back where we were and what about those five and a half lost years?
Here’s the Wall Street Journal’s take on the revelation:
Americans have rebuilt much of the wealth they lost during the recession.
The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—jumped 4.5%, or about $3 trillion, in the first three months of 2013 to $70.349 trillion. That is the highest in nominal terms since records began in 1945, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday.
The report—while tempered by inflation adjustment and a likely uneven distribution of the wealth—represents a milestone for an economy that is slowly returning to health. For the past five years, U.S. consumers have struggled to fix their balance sheets from the damage inflicted by the housing crash and recession, which ran from December 2007 through June 2009. Now the data suggest that recent stock-market gains and a revival in the U.S. housing sector are boosting Americans’ wealth—a trend that over time could make them more inclined to borrow and spend, providing a lift for the overall economy.
But when you factor in that pesky inflation, the story is a bit different:
To be sure, the Fed’s latest figures aren’t adjusted for inflation or population growth. Adjusting for rising costs, Americans’ net worth remains roughly 6% below the peak level in the third quarter of 2007. And on an inflation-adjusted, per-household basis, only 63% of households’ losses have been reversed, according to UBS.
The New York Times story says that the news comes as people are beginning to feel more positive but also comes amid mixed signals for the economy:
The encouraging report from the Fed comes amid other signs that Americans are feeling slightly better about the economy.
In a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted May 31 to June 4, 39 percent of respondents said that the recent condition of the economy was very or fairly good, the highest share saying this not only since President Obama took office but also since the recession officially began in December 2007.
About a third of respondents said that the economy was getting better, similar to what the trend had been in the previous six months. (Another 24 percent said that it was getting worse and 42 percent said the economy was staying about the same.)
Nearly half of respondents — 46 percent — rated the job market in their areas as very good or fairly good, with a third saying that they thought their local job markets would improve over the next year.
The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Despite newfound optimism in some quarters, the economy continues to send mixed signals. Even as consumer spending remains healthy and the housing market rebounds, the labor market has been much slower to recover and many Americans at middle and lower income levels remain worse off than before the downturn.
USA Today points out that most people haven’t actually regained all their lost wealth, indicating that the increase has been disproportionate:
The gains aren’t translating into a quick boom in consumer spending, Moody’s Analytics economist Scott Hoyt said. One reason is that Americans are still 11% poorer than in 2007, after adjusting for inflation and population growth.
With those adjustments, the average household has recovered only about 63% of the wealth it lost, according to calculations by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Affluent households have benefited most because most of the recovered wealth has come from higher stock prices. The wealthiest 10% of Americans own about 80% of stocks.
The recession cost Americans $15.6 trillion in wealth.
Average household wealth, adjusted for inflation, was $539,500 at the end of last year, according to the St. Louis Fed. Yet most households own less than the average, which is skewed by how much wealth belongs to the most affluent.
“Most families have recovered much less than the average amount,” the St. Louis Fed report says.
It’s interesting how conflicting the picture is for the average consumer. Home prices are rising, but jobs aren’t being created as quickly as anticipated. While is seems wealth is increasing, many signs point that it’s being created for some and not across the board.
The business media will have a lot of conflicting information to shift through in the next several weeks as more economic data comes out. But the $15.6 trillion in lost wealth is a staggering number, especially when you think of all the debt still to be paid off.
