Year-end projections and the business journalists who cover them

Alicia McElhaney of Institutional Investor writes about the projections given by investment firms and the journalists who write about them.

MeElhaney writes, “At a recent press luncheon held by a major investment firm in Manhattan, a trio of portfolio managers stood in front of a PowerPoint presentation projected onto the restaurant’s wall and proffered vague predictions for the year ahead. As the managers talked, journalists dug into the breadbasket and dutifully scrawled notes into the requisite branded notebooks provided by the firm.

“Similar scenes have been playing out at breakfasts, lunches, and happy hours all over midtown since just after Thanksgiving: investment managers hawking their market predictions for the next year to a captive audience of reporters over a hearty steak and a glass of wine or coffee and pastries. These events are generally built around the publication of asset managers’ year-end prediction reports, which aim to call everything from election outcomes to GDP growth for the coming year.

“While most journalists are not inclined to say no to a free lunch — or notebook, or selfie stick, or whatever tchotchkes are on offer — they are inclined to question whether the reports these events are predicated on are worth much and, indeed, if they’re accurate.”

Read more here.