Job numbers the biz media ignores

Jeffrey Miller is a former college professor who is an expert in statistics. He has used his expertise to manage money and has become an expert in predicting how news will influence markets.

Miller has a great post on his blog about employment data from the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) issued every month from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that is virtually ignored and misunderstood by the business media.

Miller writes, “Here are some interesting data from the last business day in June, the date covered in the questions.  We note that while this has a ‘June handle’ the information is only a couple of weeks different from the widely followed July employment situation report.  The latter survey is based on mid-month information.

“Key facts you probably did not know:

• At the end of June there were about 2.5 million job openings nationwide;
• During June there were 3.8 million new hires;
• 1.8 million people quit their jobs (seasonally adjusted);
• There were 2.5 million involuntary separations.

“The reality?  These numbers are all terrible!  They are a bit off the worst levels from two months ago, but still very bad. People underestimate labor dynamics.

“The conclusion is important, and just as we wrote in April.

“The facts are poorly understood.  You do not see them on CNBC, in the MSM, or on blogs.  Our guess is that few pundits could guess any of these numbers.  It is a neglected subject.”

Read more here.