Michael David White writes for HousingStory.net about how the major business news media missed the housing story about the decline in demand for new houses falling to a record low.
“I reviewed stories on pending-home sales by 15 leading news outlets – in addition to the flunking students mentioned immediately above, I also read Atlaticwire.com, BBC News, Bloomberg, Boston.com, CNBC, Investors’ Business Daily, New York Times, Reuters, US News — and the only difference between the outlets was the extent to which they screwed up this critical epicenter-type data set (Please see the graphic nearby depicting the various degrees of incompetence.).
“The future direction of housing prices are arguably the most critical factor in the most critical nation in the most critical financial crisis since the Great Depression. The signs are not hunky-dory in this market. The May pending-sale figures may in retrospect serve as a Rosetta Stone: A perfect guide to the true fortunes of residential real estate. Just in case you have forgotten, we are in one hell of a market, and Mom did not tell us this is what would happen when we grow up.”
Read more here.
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>>The future direction of housing prices are arguably the most critical factor in the most critical nation in the most critical financial crisis since the Great Depression.<<
Well, no kidding, but the future direction of housing prices is largely determined by sales of *existing* homes, not the *new* homes that this guy moaning about. Changes in the price of new homes could be shaped by the type of home being built (smaller = cheaper) or by the volume of homes being built in various markets (condo developers in Miami are forced to see new projects through, despite a glut, pushing down prices).
If you want a useful statistic about the direction of home prices, you study the volume of new homes relative to existing ones, the resale price of existing homes, and the correlation between local unemployment and home sale prices. Taken together, they give you a much better glimpse into the future of things. New homes sales alone does not, and neither does this guy's critique.