Columns and Commentary

Qwick Takes: How are low inventories affecting the housing market

December 3, 2021

Posted by Irina Slav

This week on, Deputy Editor Erica Thompson reached out to Qwoted’s community of experts to ask them about how low inventory levels will affect the U.S. real estate market.

Check out some of the top commentary:

John R Lynch, CEO and Founder at PCMA

The simple answer is yes and the tight inventory issue was created over a decade ago; tracing back to Dodd-Frank, very well intentioned legislation that removed 32% (categorized as high and ultra high net worth individuals) from housing/realty market.

The consequences of having such a large swath of the population with significant buying power shut out from the market due to overregulation have been dire. Forced to buy homes with cash, or stay put and remodel, this lack of available financing has contributed to the current situation of low inventories and rising costs of housing.”

Richard F Kruse, Foreclosure Auctioneer & REO Real Estate Agent at Gryphon Realty

We’ve been seeing investment/purchase in single family remain stable over the past few months. Prices are cooling off a little, but inventory remains light.

Foreclosure increases are providing some new inventory opportunities however selling today is a double edge sword. You get a high price, but you also need to pay up to buy a replacement. A factor keeping volume down is that owners are not going to market because they have nowhere to go if they sell. I would not put my home on the market to downsize simply because it will be a pain to find another home and when I do the price will be at a premium. It’s cheaper and easier to stay in a home that I don’t need.”

Nik Shah, CEO at Home.LLC

US home prices will continue to rise on the back of tight inventory levels, strong millennial demand, and FOMO (fear of missing out) on the part of potential homebuyers. The pace of home price appreciation may decelerate in 2022 if mortgage rates continue to climb, and inventory levels rise. However, there is little to no chance of a sustained fall in prices. The US housing market will not crash in 2022, for three big reasons:

(i) There simply aren’t enough homes available for sale in the housing market. Despite a modest increase in the last few months, housing inventory is very low, especially when compared to long-term historical trends.

(ii) Pent-up millennial demand will continue to exert upward pressure on home prices well into 2023.

(iii) Banks have tightened credit requirements for mortgages. Homeowners have more equity in their homes than at any time in the last 30 years. The risk of over-supply due to defaults is extremely low.

Historically low mortgage rates have contributed to a strong housing market in 2021. We expect that rates will slowly rise through 2022, and end the year between 3.5%-4%.

Mortgage rates do not have a strong negative impact on home prices. In fact, prices tend to rise even during periods of sustained increases in mortgage rates. However, a rise in interest rates can lead to a modest fall in home sales – both demand and supply of homes can drop during such periods.”

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